The Forecast Report of the Confindustria Study Center, indicates Italian GDP growth at +0.7 percent in 2023, which was already acquired at midyear, with the third and fourth quarters essentially at a standstill. In 2024, an average is forecast at +0.5 percent, down sharply from previous estimates. The paper highlights an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing this slowdown, including rising interest rates, inflation and a negative dynamic in world trade, as well as the lag in public investment due to the NRP. The report forecasts a -2.3 percent decline in industrial production in 2023, with a slight rebound of +0.8 percent in 2024. If fully implemented, the PNRR could lead to Italian GDP growth of +2.8 percent in 2026 and an increase in investment of 11.1 percent. The paper stresses caution in implementing the NRP and highlights how China’s economic dynamics could significantly affect the world economy.
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